The fall in the international price of oil will undoubtedly reach the country, affecting foreign currency income, domestic consumption and will force the State to be more austere in its public spending. In 2019, Bolivian exports amounted to $8.75 billion, 2% less than in 2018, and the volume exported also fell by 12%.
The Economist forecasts that real annual GDP growth will average 2.6% in 2020-2024. This year, real GDP growth projects at 2.2 per cent. The Government reduced the deficit from 8.1% in 2018 to 7.2% of GDP in 2019 because of a more efficient current expenditure programme and the commitment to gradually reduce the fiscal deficit set out in the 2020 Financial Programme. Inflation at the end of 2019 was 1.5%, below the projection range. In January of this year, Bolivia recorded a trade surplus of US$16 million.
Beni produces 75,741 metric tons of beef and about 4.7 million litres of milk. The largest crop in this area of the country is rice with 45,000 hectares planted between the provinces of Marbán and Cercado, which generates an economic movement of $ 70 million each crop. The Agricultural Chamber of Beni proposes to consolidate routes to enable the entry of fertilizers or limestone and to transport products to domestic and foreign markets.
The Government will not devaluate currency. The projections of the Financial Fiscal Program prioritize stability to generate new projects and investments such as lithium with $1.4 billion. The financial system has liquidity.
The agricultural sector has suffered four years of continuous losses due to the drought, with a reductionof at least two million tons of soybeans, generating an economic loss of at least $500 million. The Transitional Government has accepted the application submitted for the technical evaluation of soybean “event HB4”, drought-tolerant genetic material.
An analysis prepared by the consulting firm Gas Energy Latin America (GELA) reveals that the urea and ammonia plant, built with an investment of US$976.5 million, reported losses of approximately US$88.22 million between 2018 and 2019. The study suggests punishing 50% or 100% of the investment and guaranteeing an operation rate at 80% of the installed capacity, which amounts to 2,100 tons per day.
The lower contribution of the mining sector in the payment of the Corporate Income Tax (IUE) affected 94% in the fall of tax revenues as of March 10 this year, compared to a similar period in 2019. According to official information, from January to March 10, 2020, total tax and customs collection reached bs 8,158.7 million ($1,172.2 mn), 15.7% less than a similar period in 2019.