Bolivia´s 2020 real GDP will be –0.3% y-o-y, from 1.5% previously, down from an estimated 2.7% expansion in 2019. Risks lean to the downside, particularly if the Covid-19 pandemic extends beyond our current expectations or if domestic political unrest re-emerges in Bolivia in the coming quarters.
After more than a month of not operating, Boliviana de Aviación (BoA) reports an economic loss of about $30 million, added to the high rents it must pay for 14 ships that are not operating. The company intends to implement a recovery policy, once the quarantine is lifted, and hopes to overcome the crisis through national government credits.
The reduced operation of port services, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, has generated an increase in maritime logistics costs from 20 to 100 per cent, a situation that impacts on the increased cost of land transport in Bolivia and, consequently, increases the price of products.
The 86% in the agro-industrial expansion zone is a medium and large property. In April 2019, the agricultural frontier expanded by 250,000 hectares additional to 1,300,000 hectares planted with GM soy since 2004. The soybean sector in Bolivia only sells soybeans products to Peru and Colombia.
One million formal jobs and 4.2 million informal jobs in Bolivia are at risk due to the crisis caused by COVID-19, according to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). In a scenario of uncertainty, the IDB proposes three possible scenarios for job losses, depending on how long the pandemic and the economic crisis associated with it spread. In any of the three cases, trade, gastronomy, hotels, transport and manufacturing are the most affected sectors.
The Government, through the Ministry of Economy, managed to disburse Bs 1,117 million ($16.8 mn), in payments of extraordinary bonds, income and pensions, with resources coming mostly from the General Treasury of the Nation (TGN), during this total quarantine between April 1 and 24, due to the coronavirus pandemic.