The Government admitted that the public debt grew and that it must pay $3.71 billion in 2021, and in 2022 almost $2 trillion. There is a crisis because the amount is high and is above the capacity to use the Net International Reserves (NIR) to honour this debt this year.
After oil revenues fell by 29.6% in 2020, the government expects to reach $1.92 trillion in revenues in 2021 due to a more significant increase in gas production, better oil and natural gas prices, and higher exports to Brazil and Argentina.
Bolivian gas exports to Argentina grew by 19.10% during the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, according to official information from Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB).
Moody's Investor Service Risk Rating Agency forecasts that Bolivia's economic growth this year will recover above 4%, but in the future, it will be at 3% and warns of risks regarding the high public debt and the fall in net international reserves (NIR).
Total tax revenues in Latin America and the Caribbean decreased by 11.2% in 2020 compared to the previous year due to the impact of the pandemic on tax collection in Latin American economies. The most significant declines observed in excise taxes (-13.7%), followed by income taxes (-9.9%) and VAT (-9.2%), while all other tax revenues fell by 14.2%.
The Fraser Institute of Canada's ranking, which analyzes mining investment conditions in the world, once again placed Bolivia at the bottom of its list. In the 2020 index, the country appears in 74th place out of 76 nations and territories analyzed in the general ranking of mining attractiveness. In recent years, Bolivia has always occupied one of the last ten positions. The scale combines the Mining Potential Best Practices index, which rates countries and territories according to their geological attractiveness, and the Mining Policy Perception index measures the effects of government policy on exploration investment.
According to the latest report from the National Statistics Institute (INE), exports from the hydrocarbons sector of February 2021 fell by 29.0%, compared to the same period in 2020. Currently, sales generated by hydrocarbons represent 22% of national exports. On the other hand, non-traditional exports rebounded. The main products that increased their exports year-on-year were soybean products by 69.4%, tin metal by 42.4% and beef by 96.0%.
The World Bank (WB) projected that Bolivia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow by 4.7% this year, an estimate that exceeds the Fiscal Financial Program's projection of 4.4%.
ACI Sytems and the Bolivian State have initiated a conciliation process to save the agreement reached and discarded during the Morales administration. The project will try to reactivate the joint venture to industrialize lithium from the Uyuni salt flat. The Government announced that they would look for other actors as well.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2020 (data as of the third quarter) reached US$121 million, which represents a 65.9% drop compared to 2019 figures, according to data from the Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB). The stoppage of activities explains the decline due to the pandemic.