Category: Macroeconomy/Finance

Information regarding Bolivia’s productive sector and the country’s macroeconomy.

CAF-Development Bank initiative enables access to more than $800 million in CO2 reduction projects

The pending climate agenda in Bolivia opens up the possibility of accessing more than $800 million through municipal projects for the reduction of greenhouse gases and the decontamination of freshwater. A diagnosis carried out in the cities of La Paz, Santa Cruz, Tarija, Cochabamba, El Alto and Sucre, through the “Footprint of Cities” project, an initiative of the CAF-Development Bank, establishes the possibility of reducing at least 16 million tons of CO2, through projects that can implement with climate financing.

Foreign debt rises to $11.3 bn and expects to increase further with economic recovery

Between December 2019 and June 2020, Bolivia’s foreign debt rose from $11.268 billion to $11.3 billion. Data from the Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB) refer that it is a sustainable amount because it is below 40 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP); however, specialists warn that, given the economic crisis generated by the coronavirus, the debt will continue to grow and the government will have to make adjustments to control the circulating capital and avoid an inflationary process.

Minera San Cristobal stops for the third time, and Potosi says it loses $143,472 per day

San Cristóbal is by far the largest company in the country’s mining history. According to the figures of the Government, the royalties collected between January and July of this year reached a total of 206 million Bolivians, less than the 376.4 million obtained in a similar period in 2019, that is to say, 45.3% less. The suspension or non-export of minerals for one day from San Cristóbal lose around one million Bolivians, which impacts the execution of the different projects planned by the Government.

Bolivia to remain a net importer of crude with forecast net imports of 13,040b/d in the 2020-2029 period.

Bolivia maintains a small net import balance for crude oil, with import volumes estimated at 2,960b/d in 2018 and rising to 11,850b/d in 2019, given a significant drop in oil production that year. As we expect domestic production to further decline over 2020, the imports are likely to increase to over 13,000b/d. Given that investments in oil production remain secondary to gas-targeting projects, we maintain our view that Bolivia will remain a net importer of crude over our forecast period 2020-2029. The increasing demand from domestic refineries will mainly drive higher imports due to growing fuels consumption from 2021. We highlight that Bolivia hopes to increase exports of LPG over the forecast period as new infrastructure comes online.

Forty-three tons of gold shores up Bolivia’s Central Bank reserves

Bolivia’s long-term commitment to gold is helping to shore up its bonds, even as the Covid-19 pandemic hits the country with more than 100,000 infected. Approximately 43 tons of gold held by the Central Bank have skyrocketed in value as the price of the precious metal has surpassed $2,000 per troy ounce. Bonds maturing in 2028 have risen from 13 cents to 88.6 cents. Bolivia is the country with the highest percentage of gold reserves (42%), surpassing Argentina with 8.7% and Paraguay with 5.6%.

Textile and jewellery exports fall by up to 67% and food exports rise

Bolivian textile apparel fell 68% in value and 67% in volume over the same period in 2019. Jewellers also experienced falls of up to 50%. Quinoa exports improved from an amount of 43.3 million dollars in the first half of 2019 to 45.2 million dollars this year. The sugar sector exported 52.4 million kilograms between January and June this year, a figure higher than the 38.9 million kilograms of 2019. External sales of sunflower and its derivatives reached 75 million kilograms by July 2020, more than the 43.6 million kilograms of 2019.

Economic activity fell by 5.6% in the accumulated to April, reports the BCB

After almost 20 years, economic activity fell by 5.6% in the accumulated to April 2020. The total paralysis of economic activities affected most sectors, and the gradual resumption of some activities only took place in certain regions, says the Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The sectors that experienced the highest drops are minerals, especially zinc and tin, due to the lower production of the Asian automotive and construction industries. In the case of the construction sector, it will have a significant fall due to smaller public and private investment. The industry fell by 6.5%. On the other hand, the agricultural sector presented an accumulated growth rate of 5.35% as of April, supported by livestock and non-industrial agrarian production.